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Prediction for CME (2025-08-04T06:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-08-04T06:38Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/40377/-1
CME Note: Faint CME first seen to the NE in STEREO A COR2 beginning at 2025-08-04T06:38Z, as well as to the NW by SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The source of this event is a double peaked M2.0 and M1.4 from Active Region 14168 (N05E12) which peaked at 04/04:52Z and 04/05:05Z respectively. This flare is visible in SDO AIA 131, along with dimming and field line movement seen in SDO AIA 193, 211 and GOES SUVI 284. This CME may have been deflected towards the Northwest, as this Active Region is situation to the Northwest of a large coronal hole.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-08-07T09:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 55.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50805
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 05 Aug 2025, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Aug 2025  10CM FLUX: 140 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Aug 2025  10CM FLUX: 138 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Aug 2025  10CM FLUX: 136 / AP: 022

A faint Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 534) was
observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery around 07:20 UTC on August 04,
directed to the northwest. It is likely associated with the M2.0 flare
(SIDC flare 5031) that peaked at 04:57 UTC on August 04. Current analysis
suggests a chance for the arrival of glancing blow starting from the UTC
morning on August 07.

Lead Time: 49.53 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) on 2025-08-05T07:28Z

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